The Climate Risk – Chapter One
The ice-cold wind hit their faces as they exited the plane. The three members of the UN Sustainability Development Group were wrapped in thick brown coats with large hoods to protect them from the cold. There was no evidence of the reported warmth of a few weeks ago which had caused the temperature in Siberia to exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit for fourteen straight days. With the quickly diminishing amount of sunlight, fall had now well and truly arrived in the region.
They entered the small terminal at the Tiksi military helicopter base and were greeted by the Russian UN sustainability representative, Vladimir Kozorov, a stocky man with gray hair, a round face and dressed in a furry jacket.
Alexander “Sandy” Fraser, The Permanent Head of the UN group, shook his hand.
“Hello Vladimir. Rad vstreche s vami.” (I am pleased to see you.)
“Privyet. Same here, my friend,” Vladimir replied.
Sandy presented his two colleagues. “May I introduce Professor Daniel Robson, our director and chief scientist, and Dr. Zara Naidu, our principal researcher.”
Zara smiled at Vladimir.
Dan greeted him, “Good to see you, Mr. Kozorov.”
“Please, please call me Vladimir,” he replied in a heavy accent as he shook hands vigorously with them. “Thank you for coming. Long flight from Korea. Distances in Russia enormous. Please excuse me. I need to complete paperwork with authorities to get permission to travel to our destination. I need your passports.” He raised his eyebrows comically. “I hope this is not too long.’ He gestured across the terminal’ While you wait, have breakfast on me. Try kasha and tvorog, very nourishing.”
As they walked the narrow hallway, Dan looked out the large windows, the endless Russian tundra expanded on kilometers upon kilometers of flat frozen land surrounding the airport. The sun had just risen, and the desolate treeless view was beautiful in its immensity.
The cafeteria was a relatively utilitarian setting as expected from a military base with long wooden benches. Several soldiers were lined up waiting for food. Dan, Sandy and Zara found a vacant table and sat down. Vladmir must have pulled a few strings as a petite old woman hurried over with plates full of food and steaming cups of coffee.
Although he had just turned forty, Dan had been the Director of the UN Office for Sustainable Development (UNOSD) in Incheon, Korea for the past five years. His quick promotion had been in recognition of his strong work ethic and his outstanding qualifications in climate and environmental biology from Princeton. His role involved supporting the UN member states to plan and implement sustainable development strategies.
Two days prior, Vladimir Kozorov, the Russian representative had called him. He had been insistent that he and Sandy the Permanent Secretary of the Organization needed to come to
Siberia immediately and here they were in the middle of nowhere eating who knows what. Dan prodded the white substance on his plate, uncertain.
‘Uh perfect’, Sandy sighed in relief as he sat down stretching out. Dan had known Sandy, for a few years. Who didn’t? He was a legend in the international community. The larger-than-life Australian diplomat who charmed everyone was also the ultimate pragmatist especially when it came to food.
Sandy removed his hooded jacket, his carefully styled crop of wavy blond hair remaining in place, he looked at his watch- ‘just long enough for us to refuel before the next leg’. He picked up his fork and began rapidly eating.
Zara, meekly sat to Dan’s left, laughed awkwardly obviously intimidated. Dan had been insistent that he brought the principal U.N. Sustainability researcher Doctor Zara Naidu. Even though she was junior, she was a genius with numbers and the primary project lead.
Sensing her unease, Sandy smiled gently at her.
‘Zara, I heard you completed a Ph.D. on the release of methane in the Arctic Circle. Perfect for our expedition. Dan sent me a copy of your thesis which I read with interest.’
Zara’s eyebrows rose in surprise. Sandy continued ‘Fascinating deductions and I mean that. I don’t give praise lightly. Your work is professionally researched and the way you presented the data is clear and persuasive. Not a straightforward thing to do.’ I’m impressed!
After thirty minutes, Vladimir had cleared the lengthy paperwork required by the airport authorities and rejoined them. They walked on the nearby tarmac, and he waved the permit in the air to the Russian pilots, who signaled him “thumbs-up” to board the helicopter.
As he ducked under the whipping blades, Dan, could feel a childlike enthusiasm rise in him. The aircraft was an MRK—a high speed compound Arctic-coast surveillance rotorcraft. He had loved helicopters since he was a young boy and had been in a few, but he’d never been in this model. He slowly climbed aboard, taking the forward-facing seat next to Zara and across from Sandy Fraser. Vladimir offered them each a set of headphones. While the pilots warmed the engines up, a map of the East Siberian Sea coastline appeared on the screens in front of them.
Vladimir, who was sitting next to Sandy, began to explain the most recent developments through the audio system. “First you can see picture of Stolbovoy Island, here in North Siberia, taken by Kamov reconnaissance helicopter three years ago in June 2032. This is where we go today. Now I show you more recent images taken by this rotorcraft a few weeks ago, August 2035, after the heat wave. For best contrast, I use blue color to compare areas affected by rise of the sea.”
A diagram of the same island appeared, looking noticeably smaller in view of the loss of the landmass caused by retrogressive thaw slumps and landslides. Dan gasped, surprised by how significant the difference was.
Vladimir noticed Dan’s reaction. “You can see loss of land. Ten percent of island disappears very short period due to melting of permafrost. This going to get worse. In few years, maybe no island left. Russian research ship also detected that high levels of methane offshore on continental slope have escaped. Temperatures in this region rise three times more than global average. Warm Atlantic currents now come in Laptev Sea. Arctic becomes warmer in summer months. Ice melts faster and releases more gases. Tundra absorbs more energy from
sun and so on.”
Dan nodded his understanding and commented, “The dreaded runaway feedback cycle.”
After receiving the green light from the tower, the two pilots took the craft to an altitude of 500 meters. Dan’s mouth dropped as the pilots folded the rotor blades to a wing shape, thanks to the hybrid design features of their vehicle, and they began to fly it like a quasi-airplane with the power of the thruster. However, his enthusiasm was short-lived. As he looked out on the horizon, to his alarm, he spotted dozens of large wildfires in the distance.
Vladimir explained, “These fires, out of control for months. Dried-up peat burns. Sets entire areas on fire.”
Dan shook his head in disbelief. Wildfires in the Arctic. He remembered his tutors at Princeton saying the Arctic was one of the few places on Earth where it was almost impossible for fires to occur.
As they arrived closer to the island, the pilots reverted to the main helicopter configuration, which Dan noticed allowed them to better maneuver at a lower altitude and at a reduced speed.
At the southern end of the island, they passed over a large crater in the ground adjacent to the seashore. The ocean was foaming at the water level, bubbling due to burning methane escaping from loaded sinkholes. Large gas columns were being released in the form of jet streams directly into the atmosphere. It looked like something out of a horror movie. Dan glanced at Sandy and Zara, whose faces revealed equal measures of shock and alarm.
Vladimir’s voice came in over the intercom. “This island catches fire two months ago. Some fishermen go too close and BOOM! Methane explodes, island has not stopped burning since. Now, Russian government makes all Laptev Sea islands forbidden to any traffic. Too dangerous.”
Sandy activated his push-to-talk button. “Vlad, can they take us down for a closer look at this?”
Vladimir instructed the pilots to take them lower.
Dan peered out as they descended. The island appeared totally singed, and flames could be seen coming from the barren land. The air inside the cabin suddenly felt quite warm.
Vladimir’s voice came over the intercom again. “Sorry, pilots can’t get closer. Too dangerous. They say we must go back.”
The Climate Risk 